Week Ahead – Global Macro Events (Oct 20–25, 2025) – Weekly Trends – 19 October 2025

The coming week features key inflation and PMI readings, with attention centered on the euro area, the UK, and North America. Multiple central-bank speakers will offer updated guidance as markets recalibrate policy expectations.

📌 Monday, Oct 20

• 🇨🇳 1-Year & 5-Year Loan Prime Rates – No change expected (3.45% & 3.95%), but commentary could hint at further targeted easing as deflation risks persist.

• 🇺🇸 Fed Member Speeches – Markets watch for tone shifts after mixed regional data.

📌 Tuesday, Oct 21

• 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI (final) – Confirmation expected around 2.8% y/y, key for ECB’s next steps.

• 🇬🇧 Public Sector Borrowing – Insights into fiscal flexibility ahead of Q4 data.

• 🇨🇦 Retail Sales m/m – Expected +0.2%, a test for domestic demand and CAD sentiment.

📌 Wednesday, Oct 22

• 🇬🇧 CPI y/y – Forecast 2.9%, easing from 3.2%. A softer print would strengthen the BoE’s pause stance.

• 🇺🇸 Fed Beige Book – Regional activity and credit conditions snapshot.

• 🇯🇵 Trade Balance – Exports expected to stabilize on improved Asian demand.

📌 Thursday, Oct 23

• 🇪🇺 Flash PMIs (Germany, France, Eurozone) – Composite expected near 50.0, testing stagnation vs early recovery signals.

• 🇬🇧 Flash PMIs – Services seen around 52, Manufacturing below 49.

• 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Tracking resilience in US labor markets.

• 🇺🇸 New Home Sales – Gauge for housing stabilization amid higher mortgage costs.

📌 Friday, Oct 24

• 🇺🇸 Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) – Expected +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y.

• 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders – Core seen +0.4%, headline −1.2%; data pivotal for Q4 growth trajectory.

• 🇨🇦 GDP (monthly) – Expected flat to slightly positive after mixed employment and trade signals.

📌 Saturday, Oct 25

📌 Trader’s Note
The tone of the week hinges on inflation momentum and PMI direction. Softer UK CPI and Eurozone PMIs could reinforce a dovish tilt, while resilient US Core PCE or durable goods data would sustain dollar strength. Expect moderate volatility in USD crosses, renewed attention on GBP/EUR positioning, and range-trading bias in commodities as macro narratives evolve.

Developed via Global Markets Pulse – structured macro insights for traders.
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