The first week of July passed relatively calmly. The battle between the euro and the dollar ended in a draw, gold returned to the middle of its medium-term range, bitcoin once again failed to hold above 110,000, while Brent crude oil showed a slight increase. In the second week of the month, key drivers will remain central bank statements, US trade policy, and global risk sentiment. These factors will shape dynamics across currency, cryptocurrency, commodity, and energy markets.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair ended the week near 1.1777 amid the US dollar’s steady weakening over the past six months. The pair continues to trade within an upward channel, holding above key moving averages. In the coming week, a test of the 1.1880–1.1900 resistance zone is likely, followed by a possible correction toward 1.1700–1.1750. A breakout above 1.1985 would pave the way toward 1.2275, while a decline below 1.1480 would shift the medium-term trend to bearish.
₿ BTC/USD
Bitcoin closed the week around 107,745, pulling back from local highs near 110,000. Despite short-term pressure, the broader trend remains upward. In the week ahead, a dip toward the 102,000–104,000 support zone is possible, followed by another attempt to break above 110,000. A sustained breakout above the 115,000–115,600 area would strengthen the bullish trend with a target near 127,500. A drop below 92,000 would cancel the upside scenario and could take the price down to the 80,000–82,000 support area.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude finished Friday at $67.87 per barrel, showing a weekly gain of about 3% amid ongoing concerns over the situation in the Middle East. In the coming days, a move toward the 71.00–71.50 resistance zone cannot be ruled out, potentially followed by a new decline toward 61.00–62.00. A breakout above 74.75 would alter the technical picture, opening the way to 82.00. A drop below 65.45 would confirm sellers’ control.
🪙 XAU/USD
Gold ended the week at 3,335, confirming its upward movement within a steady medium-term triangle pattern. Buyers remain in control, with prices firmly holding above the key support at 3,240. A short-term correction toward 3,240–3,295 may occur next week, followed by a breakout above 3,400 and possibly a rally toward 3,450. A drop below 3,115 would invalidate the bullish scenario and could trigger a deeper correction toward the 2,950 area.
🔚 Conclusion
The forecast for the period from July 7 to 11 suggests moderate optimism for the euro and gold, a volatile but positive outlook for bitcoin, and continued pressure on oil. Volatility is expected to rise in response to new macroeconomic data, central bank commentary, and geopolitical developments. Traders should closely monitor key levels and potential reversals across all major assets.
