Market Forecast for 30 June – 4 July 2025 – Analytics & Forecasts – 28 June 2025

During the past week (23–27 June), global investor sentiment remained upbeat, fuelled by expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. The EUR/USD pair climbed to 1.1718. Gold dropped by approximately 2.3%, ending the week near $3,274 per ounce as demand for safe-haven assets declined following reports of calm in the Middle East and improving global trade sentiment. Bitcoin returned to the $107,000–107,400 range, supported by the expiry of large options contracts and growing institutional interest.

💶 EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair continues to trade with a bullish bias, staying above the 1.1700 level amid a weakening dollar and expectations of a Fed rate cut. From a technical perspective, resistance is seen in the 1.1745–1.1800 area; a breakout above this range could pave the way towards 1.1850–1.1900. Immediate support is at 1.1680, with a break below potentially leading to a decline towards 1.1600–1.1585, and further to 1.1430–1.1460. This week’s key market drivers include US Core PCE inflation data and employment statistics.

₿ BTC/USD

Bitcoin remains stable around the $107,000 mark, closing the week at $107,187. Its consolidation followed the expiry of options contracts worth approximately $40 billion. However, implied volatility may rise in response to US macroeconomic data. Demand from both institutional and retail investors continues to provide support around $105,500–106,000. A breakout above $110,000 could trigger a rally towards the May high of $111,915. On the downside, a drop below $105,000—particularly amid deteriorating macroeconomic conditions—could push the price down to the $98,000–100,000 zone.

🛢️ Brent

Brent crude oil prices declined to $66.30 per barrel on Friday, 27 June. On 23 June, prices had spiked to the $78 area following US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities. However, the subsequent easing of Middle East tensions and signs of a potential OPEC+ production increase in August triggered a pullback. Brent posted its steepest weekly drop since March 2023—nearly 12%. A slight decline in trading volume and open interest was also observed.
Technically, Brent remains above its 50-day moving average but is testing a key support zone at $66.30–66.50. If this level holds, a rebound to $69–70 is possible. If broken, a further decline to $64—and potentially to $62—cannot be ruled out. Downside risks are linked to OPEC+ decisions and fresh geopolitical developments.

🥇 XAU/USD

Gold ended the week under pressure at around $3,274 per ounce, falling below its 50-day moving average. Weekly losses of approximately 2.3% reflect reduced interest in safe-haven assets. The metal is now trading in a corrective structure, with key support at $3,250–3,300. A potential rebound could lift prices to the $3,330–3,350 range, while a break below may send gold down to $3,200 and $3,165. The primary sources of volatility this week remain US inflation data and Fed commentary.

😊 Conclusion

In the final days of June and early July, markets are likely to remain within established ranges, awaiting the release of key US economic data. EUR/USD is expected to fluctuate between 1.1680–1.1745, gold within $3,256–3,350, bitcoin between $105,000 and $110,000, and Brent crude oil around $66–69. However, unexpected inflation or employment figures from the US could lead to breakouts and the emergence of new market trends.