Major markets ended the week with a cautious, slightly risk-off tone. The minutes of the latest FOMC meeting showed that US central bank policymakers remain divided on whether another rate cut at the December meeting is warranted. The discussion is unfolding against a backdrop of relatively stable macro data: the November business-activity surveys confirm continued expansion in the US economy, while euro area indicators remain above the 50.0 mark, although they continue to reflect weakness in the manufacturing sector. As a result, by late November the situation can be characterised as steady but uneven global economic growth.
📈 EUR/USD
Against this backdrop, EUR/USD finished Friday at 1.1513 after spending the week in a 1.1490–1.1624 range. On 21 November the pair briefly rose above 1.1550, but stronger-than-expected US business-activity data and US Treasury yields pushed it lower. As a result, the US dollar gained more than 100 points over the week. The growth and yield differential remains moderately favourable for the dollar. The 1.1480-1.1500 area now represents the nearest support zone. A decisive break below it would open the way toward 1.1380-1.1400 and increase the risk of a deeper pullback toward the levels of this spring. The first strong resistance is located in the 1.1620–1.1655 zone, followed by 1.1720-1.1730. A break above these levels would suggest a resumption of the pair’s long-term advance toward the 1.2000-1.2200 region.
🟠 BTC/USD
Bitcoin continues to decline rapidly. On Friday it fell to 80,540, and after setting a new all-time high at 126,310 has lost more than 35% in just six weeks. Pressure has intensified due to forced liquidations of margin longs, profit-taking, reduced risk appetite and expectations of less aggressive Fed easing. Flows into BTC ETFs have slowed or turned negative as investors move into the dollar and high-quality bonds. The nearest support lies in the 75,000-80,000 zone; a break below it would open the way toward the consolidation range of spring–autumn 2024 at 53,000-75,000. Overhead, the nearest strong resistance is at 92,000–95,000, and only a sustained rise above 99,000-105,000 would revive hopes for a return to a bullish trend.
🛢 Brent
Brent crude futures declined over the week from 63.85 to 61.88 dollars per barrel, corresponding to the low of 30 May. Pressure stems from abundant supply and rising US inventories. Technically, Brent is still trading within the descending channel of late October–November. Sellers are currently active near 64.00-66.00, which is the nearest resistance. Buyers re-emerge around the 60.00-61.00 support area. The next support zone below 60.00, at 58.00-59.00, corresponds to the lows of March–April this year.
🏆 XAU/USD
Gold remains in a consolidation phase, trading around the 4,000-dollar Pivot Point. This behaviour highlights that, unlike the falling bitcoin, the metal serves as a genuine store of value rather than a short-term speculative instrument. This week the XAU/USD pair closed at 4,066, keeping the previous scenario intact. If the dollar strengthens further, another decline toward 3,885-3,900 cannot be ruled out. A fall below 3,625 would negate the bullish scenario and open the way toward 3,250-3,430. A rise above 4,250 would confirm the resumption of the bullish rally.
📊 Conclusion
The week of 24-28 November will be driven by key US data releases and Fed communication. Markets are awaiting the US Q3 GDP revision (26 November), personal income, spending and PCE data (27 November), as well as housing-market reports and consumer-confidence indicators (25-27 November). These releases will help assess the probability of a December rate cut and the anticipated pace of monetary easing in 2026. The baseline scenario: for EUR/USD, BTC/USD and Brent – neutral with a moderate bearish bias. For gold – a buy-the-dip bias while XAU/USD remains above roughly 3,900 dollars.
