Bitcoin ends 2025 with a sharp reversal: from record highs above USD 120,000 in the summer to levels below USD 82,000 in November. The correction was driven by a combination of factors: profit-taking, rising volatility, liquidity issues on several platforms, declining BTC ETF volumes, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, and uncertainty surrounding a possible US government shutdown. Additional pressure came from the breakdown of key technical levels and an increase in margin position liquidations.
The decline fits the typical post-halving pattern: the impact of the 2024 halving traditionally lasts 18-24 months, during which the market often goes through phases of sharp corrections and subsequent recoveries.
Key industry figures remain on the side of the optimists. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, once again referred to the asset as “digital gold” and highlighted strong institutional demand. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood maintains a forecast of USD 150,000-200,000 within the current cycle, pointing to limited supply as the main driver of growth. Research firm Bernstein allows for a move toward USD 200,000 as early as the first half of 2026 if capital inflows into crypto ETFs resume.
Additional support for the bullish outlook comes from growing corporate participation: several US and Asian funds announced the inclusion of Bitcoin in their strategic portfolios in 2025. A further factor could be the new regulatory cycle in the US and Europe, where unified frameworks for exchanges, custodial services and stablecoins are being developed.
The sceptical camp remains strong as well. Economist Nouriel Roubini, a long-time critic of Bitcoin, reiterated that the asset remains “a bubble without fundamental value”. Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, points to the statistical risk of the price eventually falling to zero in the long run. Deutsche Bank strategist Marion Laboure believes Bitcoin will remain a highly volatile asset until a clear regulatory framework and stable institutional demand emerge. Several technical analysts warn that if key support levels are breached, the price may decline toward the USD 70,000-76,000 zone.
In summary, 2026 will be a stress test for the crypto market. Bitcoin’s movement will be shaped by the aftermath of the 2024 halving, the pace of institutional inflows, regulatory decisions and overall liquidity conditions. The year is likely to be volatile and ambiguous – making it one of the most closely watched periods in the history of the crypto industry.